How to Forecast Lightning.

How to Forecast Lightning 

By: Team Bolt

Model runs from 1/31/24

The first thing to forecasting lightning is finding out if there will be precipitation in the area and if the storm will contain both ice particles and water droplets. Looking at the models for Friday at midnight CST, there will indeed be precip in the area along with cold enough temps to support ice particles aloft.

However, due to a lack of instability in the area, the ice particles will not be carrying to much of a charge, but there will be shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere that can enhance the charge of these ice particles.

As the NWS has more forecasting tools than we do, they likely looked at some other factors to make this graphic. But this is how to forecast lightning. For more info on this topic, visit this site.